Today I’m doing something a little different. I’ve handed over the writing reins to a friend from Madrid, Spain. He has some thoughts on the current war in Ukraine and I thought it would be interesting to provide one European’s perspective. Please join me in welcoming our guest writer, Sr. Alvaro Gomez-Jordana Moya!
Disclaimer: These thoughts are his and do not necessarily align with my own. My posting this does not equal endorsement of everything he’s written. I am simply providing the perspective of one man, with whom I enjoy sharing conversation and debate.
His writing has been very lightly edited, by me, for grammar and clarity.
If a thug is allowed small misdeeds, obviously he is going move on to bigger ones, and Russia has been doing it without stopping.
The world order changed radically and despite the multiple commercial, cultural, sports agreements, etc. between Russia and the West; Putin and his High Command, especially Sergei Lavrov (Foreign Affairs,) were hatching an onslaught against other nations, which they have already done with Crimea and the breakaway Ukrainian provinces.
Putin enjoys the western way of life: parties, frivolous spending of money, mansions, luxury boats, powerful and luxurious cars, and other facets of that life, like the societal freedoms afforded in the West. Proof of this is the fortunes that Russian oligarchs, and Putin himself, have amassed, and hidden away in tax shelters. The moral is obvious: Putin should not have been allowed such excesses.
Strategically, the response has been a blunder by the United States (USA), and of course by the European Union (EU), due to its energy dependency on Russia.
Ukraine was an appetizing morsel because of the riches it has: natural, agricultural, and mining resources, and security for him was not having NATO by his side, but expanding his possessions.
China, up to now, has been very moderate, though this is no surprise because the Cold War brought Russia and China together. Each one of them seeks their profit, and their corresponding share of power, in this dance. In the 70s the rise in oil put the whole world against the wall, due to OPEC, and today, Russia alone has done the same by bombing nuclear energy plants. Nuclear energy plants run the risk, at any time, of radiation leaks, and the danger is close at hand in Europe. The stress of this possibility is felt more strongly in Europe than in the United States since the war, and the plants, are in their backyard.
The future, if global confrontation is avoided, may be that Russia will not leave the conquered territory, and even attempt to extend their incursion beyond Ukraine. All of this despite the reality that Russia will be left poor, with the ruble devalued, with inflation, and more debt. And, with its energy resources in stock and no buyers willing to pay its prices.
The West begins to better diversify its energy sources, as it should have long ago, and the process will be complicated, and as always, expensive!
Those who have been able to flee from this scenario will emigrate to countries of their convenience, with Germany, Canada, and the USA being their preferred destinations.
Europe will be in recession with a cheap Euro, no natural resources, and expensive energy from all its new and traditional sources.
China will have much to say and do, and will benefit from many new businesses, possibly the most important ones being in the energy sector.
To finish, here are some questions to consider. When will Russia stop? When will more sanctions be imposed? Or will she stand up to her toes with a confederation of nations against her? Or with an unforeseeable and unexpected accident?
— Alvaro Gomez-Jordana Moya
Founder, World Editorial Press (España)